In an uncertain global economic climate, marked by Donald Trump's return to the White House and a rise in protectionism, Swiss real estate confirms its position as a safe haven. Bernard Nicod, founder of the eponymous group, shares his analysis of the current state of the Swiss real estate market and its outlook.
Investment real estate is once again becoming a safe haven
As the global economy passes through a turbulent zone with nervous financial markets and fluctuating interest rates, institutional investors are rediscovering the assets of stone. "Investment property is once again becoming a safe haven. A real one. Not a fad, not a bubble. A tangible, predictable value that generates stable income," explains Bernard Nicod.
This trend can be explained by several major cyclical factors:
The unpredictable US trade agenda under the Trump presidency;
125% tariffs imposed on Chinese products;
A temporary 31% surtax threatening Swiss access to the US market;
A downward trend in SNB rates, with analysts even hinting at a possible return to the negative zone.
In this climate of uncertainty, the big maneuvers have begun. "Institutional investors are repatriating their marbles. Pension funds, insurance companies and other funds are taking control of their portfolios," notes Bernard Nicod. These players are now looking for solid, tangible investments, with clear, predictable returns.
Two-speed market, first-time buyers penalized
While this dynamic benefits current owners, whose properties mechanically increase in value, it poses serious challenges for first-time buyers. Even with mortgage rates on a downward trend, access to home ownership remains an obstacle course in Switzerland.
"It's not the market's fault, nor the sellers'. It's the direct consequence of Basel III," analyzes Bernard Nicod. This regulatory framework, supposed to guarantee banking stability, has ended up locking access to mortgages in Switzerland by requiring 20% equity and limiting income-based lending.
In a country where prices are already among the highest in Europe, these restrictions de facto reserve access to property for an elite. "By dint of rigidity, we end up blocking the property elevator for those who work, save and want to establish themselves," deplores Bernard Nicod.
A call to action for more balanced regulation
With just 35.8% of homes owner-occupied in 2023, Switzerland ranks last in Europe in terms of home ownership. Bernard Nicod therefore calls on the authorities to assume their responsibilities:
"It is urgent that our authorities assume their responsibilities, starting with those of the Federal Council vis-à-vis UBS. Not with announcements, but with clear measures. By easing certain constraints, without abandoning rigor."
The stakes are high: make buying possible without putting buyers at risk, while maintaining a quality supply. Because the massive return of institutional investors to real estate is never without consequences: rising prices, scarcity of properties and overbidding.
A balanced vision of Swiss real estate
"Real estate, when well thought out, remains a pillar of stability. But if it becomes a battleground between institutions and individuals, between yield and access, then it will lose what is its strength: trust," concludes Bernard Nicod.
For more information on our real estate services in French-speaking Switzerland or to obtain a free valuation of your property, contact our experts on 021 311 11 11 or visit our services www.bernard-nicod.ch.